A university-clustered tuberculosis outbreak during the COVID-19 pandemic in eastern China.

During the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, a tuberculosis outbreak occurred in a university in eastern China, with 4,488 students and 421 staff on the campus. A 19-year-old student was diagnosed in August 2019. Later, the first round of screening was initiated among close contacts, but no active cases were found. Till September 2020, four rounds of screening were performed. Four rounds of screening were conducted on September 9, November 8, November 22-25 in 2019 and September 2020, with 0, 5, 0 and 43 cases identified, respectively. A total of 66 active tuberculosis were found in the same university, including 4 sputum culture-positive and 7 sputum smear-positive. The total attack rate of active tuberculosis was 1.34% (66/4909). The whole-genome sequencing showed that the isolates belonged to the same L2 sub-specie and were sensitive to all tested antituberculosis drugs. Delay detection, diagnosis and report of cases were the major cause of this university tuberculosis epidemic. More attention should be paid to the asymptomatic students in the index class. After the occurrence of tuberculosis cases in schools, multiple rounds of screening should be carried out, and preventive therapy should be applied in a timely manner.

[A comparative study of time series models in predicting COVID-19 cases].

Objective: To compare the performances of different time series models in predicting COVID-19 in different countries. Methods: We collected the daily confirmed case numbers of COVID-19 in the USA, India, and Brazil from April 1 to September 30, 2020, and then constructed an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and a recurrent neural network (RNN) model, respectively. We applied the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean square error (RMSE) to compare the performances of the two models in predicting the case numbers from September 21 to September 30, 2020. Results: For the ARIMA models applied in the USA, India, and Brazil, the MAPEs were 13.18%, 9.18%, and 17.30%, respectively, and the RMSEs were 6 542.32, 8 069.50, and 3 954.59, respectively. For the RNN models applied in the USA, India, and Brazil, the MAPEs were 15.27%, 7.23% and 26.02%, respectively, and the RMSEs were 6 877.71, 6 457.07, and 5 950.88, respectively. Conclusions: The performance of the prediction models varied with country. The ARIMA model had a better prediction performance for COVID-19 in the USA and Brazil, while the RNN model was more suitable in India.